The Futility Monster

He'll pointlessly derive more enjoyment out of your resources than you

The Battle Of The Pollsters

Posted by The Futility Monster on May 5, 2010 @ 23:25

Let’s face it, there are too many polling organisations doing political work.

But this year, one of them is definitely going to get it right (and by that I mean within 1% on each party) because of the wide spread of results. You pays your money, and you takes your choice. As you can see below…

These are the final polls for the named pollster.

Pollster Labour Conservative Lib Dem
Angus Reid 24% 36% 29%
BPIX 27% 34% 30%
ComRes 28% 37% 28%
Harris 29% 35% 27%
ICM 28% 36% 26%
MORI 29% 36% 27%
Opinium 27% 35% 26%
Populus 28% 37% 27%
TNS 27% 33% 29%
YouGov 28% 35% 28%
RANGE 24-29% 33-37% 26-30%

On top of all this, we have the monster exit poll to come tomorrow, which is going to involve NOP, who haven’t done any political polling for anyone for years, despite getting the 2005 election spot on.

There has been some convergence, so they’re either all going to look good, or all bad. I’m supremely confident that each party will get a figure within the range indicated. Why bother with polling otherwise?

Of all of them, the one that stands out the most is Angus Reid. They have a lot on the line tomorrow. Are they going to be rewarded for bucking the trend all year? Or are they going to find British polling a lot tougher than they thought?

I’ll be taking my final shot at the numbers tomorrow. With and without YouGov. Not because I don’t like them, just because my sample is so heavily biased towards their polls cos there are so bloody many of them.

Good luck to them all, anyway. But we may be wishing or or two farewell come May 7th…

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