OK, so I don’t blog any more – life happened, and politics drove me to despair – but there is some unfinished business.
On January 1 2010, I made the following predictions:
1 – The Conservatives will win the General Election (which will be held in May) with a majority of approximately 50 seats.
Well, I got that wrong. I lost my bottle. After predicting for years (pre-blogging, alas) that it would be a hung parliament next time, I got carried away with continuous polls showing a Tory landslide. I should have stuck with my gut feeling.
2 – George Osborne will not be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer.
OK, that was always going to be a long shot. More in hope rather than expectation. I thought he might get a different post, a more strategic one, and instead Phillip Hammond would get the job. Moral of the tale: wild predictions are often wrong.
3 – Gordon Brown will be replaced as Labour Party leader by Ed Miliband.
Even a stopped clock is right twice a day. But no, that’s unfair. To me this ranks amongst my finest predictions ever. Best one since predicting Obama as next President in 2004. I just had a feeling that the Labour Party would turn to a “new” face, rather than David Miliband. I had been convinced Ed Miliband had the ability to win such a contest in 2007 at his conference speech. At least, I think it was 2007.
4 – Gordon Brown will get a job on the international stage and resign as an MP.
Wrong. I am really surprised that he is still an MP. Ex PMs just shouldn’t be in Parliament. Gordon Brown still doesn’t strike me as the type to overshadow the new leadership. I still think he will go. Perhaps the right opportunity hasn’t arisen yet…
5 – The new Tory administration will suffer a scandal of some kind. Yes, I know this is very vague, and a total cop out, but I can’t quite put my finger on it…
Well, I was half-right. By “scandal” I was, naturally, implying some sort of personal relationship issue. It was provided extremely quickly by David Laws and his questionable financial arrangements. But it wasn’t a Tory administration that provided it. Though on the other hand, it might as well be.
6 – The Tories will scrap the ID card, but questions will remain over whether the database behind the project actually disappears with it.
Half right again. It was a coalition government that scrapped the ID card, and it seems the whole database has gone too. In this case, I’m glad to be wrong. Good riddance.
7 – Obama will not only pass his healthcare reform bill, but will score a major political coup by passing comprehensive immigration reform, utterly dividing the Republican Party in the process.
Oh dear. Well, sort of half right. He did get healthcare reform – of a sort – but no immigration reform, more’s the pity. Instead, he went down to a thumping defeat. The Republican Party, however, is definitely divided. The mother of all splits is coming down the track with the Tea Party vs Traditional Republican clash.
8 – The Democrats will lose 30 seats in the House, and 5 seats in the Senate, worsening the already fractured relationship between Obama and an increasingly obstructive Republican minority.
Well, they lost 6 in the Senate, so pretty good here. But the House losses were twice as large as I thought. And I was spot on about the “increasingly obstructive Republican minority”. In fact, they’ve done nothing other than obstruct, and have had incredible success in the process. But they’re going to have to do try and do something with their shiny new House majority to prove they can do more than just generate soundbites.
9 – Australian PM Kevin Rudd will win the next federal election – a double dissolution – with a major landslide.
Back in January 2010, this looked nailed on. It couldn’t have been any better for the Australian Labor Party. The opposition were in disarray, Rudd was riding high in the polls, and the right circumstances were in place for Rudd to call a special “double dissolution” election, which would allow him the opportunity to make significant changes to the country. Instead, he bottled it, and ended up getting kicked out. The replacement leader managed to scrape home with the help of a new coalition, but whether she’ll build on that is anyone’s guess. Goes to show how important nerve is in politics…
10 – The Iranian crisis will either culminate in the death of Mirhossein Mousavi or there will be a popular revolution. That’s another cop out, I’m sorry, but either way I think this will be a significant year for the Iranian situation.
Moral of the tale here: steer clear of international situations you know nothing about.
Overall, not particularly bad. Lots of “half rights”. The biggest errors were when I let my hopes overrule my genuine expectations. Or when I just made a bizarre prediction for shits and giggles. But I’m so proud of my Ed Miliband prediction that I think I deserve some credit 🙂
But the less said about my prediction for Arsenal to win the Premier League, the better.