The Futility Monster

He'll pointlessly derive more enjoyment out of your resources than you

Pollwatch: The End

Posted by The Futility Monster on May 6, 2010 @ 21:35

CONSERVATIVES: 35% (+1%)

LIB DEMS: 28% (N/C)

LABOUR: 28% (N/C)

Changes based upon last time (Tuesday). Sample consists of all polls with mid-point fieldwork dates within the last 10 days, including today (n=29). Includes all British Polling Council registered pollsters. The results above are the median figure for each party.

Well, well, well. My final median calculation looks exactly like the final YouGov poll! I’m in esteemed company. I hope.

I’m going to stick my neck out and say that these will be very close to the result. That’s a bold prediction even if I do say so myself. It may be slightly underestimating the Conservatives, perhaps two points better to them and taken off the Lib Dems, but either way I’m hoping for something very close to victory.

And not just because I want something to show off about, but because I really wouldn’t mind the above result as it would produce a very interesting parliament.

But the big point to make is that these top-line figures are going to disguise an incredible degree of variation. From disproportional swings to the Tories in Lab-Con marginals, to unusual stories involving some of our favourite political characters, from the corrupt (expenses!) to the charismatic (Galloway?).

There are a few things I’d like to watch out for though, and that list will be coming up soon.

Until then… wish both me, and the pollsters, luck!

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2 Responses to “Pollwatch: The End”

  1. Peter Reynolds said

    WOW! If the BBC exit poll is right then it is a travesty and a tragedy for the Lib Dems.

  2. Peter Reynolds said

    http://peterreynolds.wordpress.com/2010/05/06/if-the-bbc-exit-poll-is-right/

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