The Futility Monster

He'll pointlessly derive more enjoyment out of your resources than you

Pollwatch: T-Minus 4 Days

Posted by The Futility Monster on May 2, 2010 @ 23:59

CONSERVATIVES: 34% (N/C)

LIB DEMS: 29% (N/C)

LABOUR: 28% (+1%)

Changes based upon last time (yesterday). Sample consists of all polls with mid-point fieldwork dates within the last 10 days, including today (n=29). Includes all British Polling Council registered pollsters. The results above are the median figure for each party.

Hang on a minute. I thought Labour were finished after “bigotgate”?

Apparently not. At least, no one seems to have told the Labour voters to desert the sinking ship.

Instead, the polls have been remarkably solid. The good news appears to be that the ComRes poll which showed the Tories with a 10 point lead has not been backed up by other pollsters. Poor old ComRes haven’t had much luck with the sampling lately.

But the degree of similarity lately is remarkable. They’re all either going to be pretty much on the money, or all massively wrong.

My money is still on the former.

Right now, our poll medians are following the YouGov numbers very closely. That’s probably because the sample pool is littered with nearly half the surveys coming from the firm. With a bit of luck we might see some more variety in the coming days. If not, I’m going to look at the medians without YouGov to see what difference it makes.

Having said that, I think these numbers are very close to being right, though I think they may be a little generous to both Labour and the LDs. My guess at this stage would be a Tory figure of 35%, with Labour and LD both one lower than above, and the other spare 1% going to others. Because I still don’t think Others are going any lower than 10%.

There is still one other issue… whether the pollsters will converge in the closing days. Some have observed in the past that this is a common feature. Either they start losing their nerve about how right they are, and start to tweak the methodology a little, or suddenly people’s minds become set, and the pollsters begin to keep hitting the same blend every time.

Maybe it’s a bit of both.

Not long to find out though. Isn’t it exciting?

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One Response to “Pollwatch: T-Minus 4 Days”

  1. […] Pollwatch: T-Minus 4 Days […]

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