The Futility Monster

He'll pointlessly derive more enjoyment out of your resources than you

Pollwatch: T-Minus 6 Days

Posted by The Futility Monster on April 30, 2010 @ 23:59

CONSERVATIVES: 34% (N/C)

LIB DEMS: 29% (N/C)

LABOUR: 27% (N/C)

Changes based upon last time (yesterday). Sample consists of all polls with mid-point fieldwork dates within the last 10 days, including today (n=28). Includes all British Polling Council registered pollsters. The results above are the median figure for each party.

Well, that was exciting, wasn’t it?

There has only been one post-debate poll released, and that’s the daily YouGov. That showed… nought but a 1% rise in the Labour share. Barely anything. And, though we still need more data, I’m going to stick my neck firmly on the block now and say I’m feeling pretty vindicated about predicting nothing will come of “bigotgate” .

Sunday is definitely the big day. There is bound to have been lots of polling in the field today, and more tomorrow, all ready for the final Sunday of the campaign. There will be much talk of whether these polls on a bank holiday weekend are accurate, but I trust the pollsters to get round any sampling difficulties. They know what they’re doing.

And expect next week to be a continued deluge. Be aware too, that of all the numbers coming out over the next few days, one of them is bound to be exactly right. And maybe more.

Scary thought, no?

The endgame approaches. Are you ready for it?

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5 Responses to “Pollwatch: T-Minus 6 Days”

  1. I see you’ve dropped your previous method of aggregating polls. Any particular reason? Are you less confident in Mike Smithson’s Golden Rule than you were?

  2. Very much so. While I do expect them to under-perform again (27% right now is probably just a little high), I simply don’t believe the new pollster Angus Reid – whose latest poll put them on 23% – is correct.

    Even excluding Angus Reid, Harris (an old pollster) put them on 24%. It just doesn’t feel right to me to use the Labour minimum. I think they’re now weighting against them too strongly to over-compensate for their decades of Labour bias.

    I think the median Labour share is about right to estimate them this time. But I’m willing to be proved wrong 🙂

    What do you think?

  3. I honestly don’t know the right answer! I hesitate to reject Angus Reid since though, since they have a very good record in Canada. Hopefully ICM and Populus will have polls for the Sunday newspapers which might cast some light on the situation.

    As Mike Smithson has warned, we need to be careful with the last few polls of the campaign: fieldwork over the May Day bank holiday weekend has historically had a tendency to underestimate the Tories (at least from phone pollsters), though the Lib Dems seemed to be well predicted last time.

    It’s rather nerve-racking – the Harris and Angus Reid polls put us in a position where we might come second in seats with only a little change in voting intention (according to this: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/strong-second-by-libdems-could-help.html see the second scenario), but the latest YouGov poll has us neck and neck with Labour in votes.

  4. Tomorrow’s polls suggest we’re in reverse. To be expected really after all the positive glow Cameron got. Oh well. And if they really are underestimating the Tories, the end really is nigh.

    It would be great if we could finish ahead of Labour in votes, as I think it would cement the case for voting reform. Then again, Labour will probably turn against it. After all, they would have been spared a hiding courtesy of that very electoral system.

    I’m beginning to worry that our chance has come and gone. We had to sustain the tide and secure at least 30%. Only that kind of figure would deliver us enough MPs to make a hung parliament a nailed on certainty. Having said that, exactly as Nate Silver is arguing, we rather need a half decent Labour result to ensure the Tories don’t just hoover up all the Lab-Con marginals anyway.

    Still all to play for, but my nerves can’t take any more. Will be updating the medians again later tonight.

  5. […] Pollwatch: T-Minus 6 Days […]

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