The Futility Monster

He'll pointlessly derive more enjoyment out of your resources than you

Four Degrees Of Lib Demmery: Majority

Posted by The Futility Monster on April 21, 2010 @ 08:00

We know how to spend money wisely. Especially if it comes from Michael Brown.

While Brown and Cameron bicker over what a vote for the Lib Dems really means, Nick Clegg should be hammering home this old message, which has been renewed courtesy of a ComRes poll. Repeating this mantra should be part of every single press conference, media event and, yes, the next two debates. It’s the only way to bust down this useless electoral system.

But what if it’s successful? What if…

In order to achieve the incredibly distant possibility of a Lib Dem majority, the party would likely need to secure 40% of the national vote share. It would also be doable on a lower share, say 35%, if the Tories and Labour both scored some way below 30%, accompanied by a pickup in votes for “spoiler” other candidates.

To get to this place, clearly the Lib Dems need to be ascending further in the polls. Perhaps two more debate “wins” will do the job. It would create its own momentum, and the more people believe the system can be overcome, the more likely they are to participate in its destruction – see the ComRes poll for evidence. Even traditional Labour voters may get carried away and join the surge. Anything to bloody the Tories noses after years of dreading the seemingly inevitable Tory victory.

Bear in mind though that such a victory essentially would have to be driven by its own head of steam. The party machine is essentially bust. There aren’t big funds flowing into the Lib Dem coffers. The number of activists is extremely low. The ground war the Lib Dems specialise in is rigidly disciplined, highly targeted campaigns in “winnable” seats. The party has no experience of anything else, and it does not have the resources to spread those activists thinly enough in order to create at least the illusion of a campaign in each constituency.

With that in mind, it makes seats where the Lib Dems are currently in third place almost all impossible. It would take something of the order of a Rage Against the Machine style meme. Someone is trying it on Facebook, but actually going out and voting requires a bit more effort than clicking “Like” on a social network. And if you’re not even registered to vote in the first place…

If a miracle did occur, a majority on their own would obviously allow the Lib Dems to implement their agenda. It would be interesting to see how they would react to such a great deal of power, and whether manifesto pledges on voting reform lived to see the light of day. One hopes us Lib Dems would stick to our principles, but power is a dangerous drug.

To achieve any of this is so wildly beyond the bounds of possibility that it should be dismissed outright. But it’s nice to dream.

Other results, however, are much more likely. Another scenario, its likelihood, and what it might mean, coming up later…

Advertisements

2 Responses to “Four Degrees Of Lib Demmery: Majority”

  1. […] Four Degrees Of Lib Demmery: Majority […]

  2. […] Four Degrees Of Lib Demmery: Majority […]

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

 
%d bloggers like this: