The Futility Monster

He'll pointlessly derive more enjoyment out of your resources than you

Four Degrees Of Lib Demmery: Minority

Posted by The Futility Monster on April 21, 2010 @ 11:00

If even the Canadians can handle a minority...

So what if the election result came in and it became clear that the Lib Dems had more seats than anyone else, but no majority?

Slightly more likely than a Lib Dem majority, but still, it’ll be a cold day in hell when that happens.

It would still require a major vote share of 35-40%; unimaginable. What makes it different from a majority is the level of support for the other two parties. If they can hold firm at near the 30% level, it would mean they would mount a slightly better defence.

But not enough.

The bizarre thing about a result like this is that it would cause much more consternation than a majority. A majority would allow the “normal” business of government to take place. A Lib Dem minority would put so many noses out of joint that you might even get the other parties refusing to co-operate. After all, why would they want to conspire in their own downfall? And if the Lib Dem minority wasn’t sufficient enough, an unholy Tory-Labour alliance could ensure the old parties retain their dominance.

All very interesting. But still not remotely likely. A Lib Dem breakthrough in this election would be measured in the low hundreds, certainly nowhere near the double century required for calculations of the above to be relevant.

Slightly more possible would be if the Lib Dems achieved the greatest votes, but the fewest seats. That would cause a constitutional crisis, without a doubt. The legitimacy of the election would be zero. No one could possibly justify such unfairness. Surely the pressure for genuine electoral reform would be irresistible, and, after a brief Parliament to change it, a better election might soon follow…

But it’s still all too remote. We need to turn elsewhere. There are two distinct scenarios that within them could produce lots of alternatives, all of them not beyond the realms of possibility, and yet all of them with the potential for inducing major change in the British system.

Back later for more…

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2 Responses to “Four Degrees Of Lib Demmery: Minority”

  1. […] Four Degrees Of Lib Demmery: Minority […]

  2. […] Four Degrees Of Lib Demmery: Minority […]

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