The Futility Monster

He'll pointlessly derive more enjoyment out of your resources than you

And The Polls Did Flow

Posted by The Futility Monster on February 18, 2010 @ 09:56

It’s been over a month since we last gazed into our polling crystal ball (because we have other kinds of crystal balls too…) and I suppose it might be time to update it. But when you see the results, you’ll wish I didn’t…

  • Conservatives: 40% (N/C)
  • Labour: 22% (N/C)
  • Lib Dems: 21% (N/C)

Whoops.

Seriously? No changes at all? Yes. It’s largely because we’re still waiting for that rogue Labour 22% poll to drop out of the polling window (in two days!) – and, as for the Tories, I’ve said it time and time again… their 40% poll rating is nailed on by now. They will not score lower than this in the GB overall result. I triple guarantee it!

The other issue is that the number of polls since then has been remarkably low considering how close we are to an election. Just four polls so far in February.

But, lo, there is news on the horizon to help us. And, alas, it means we have to be grateful for the deep pockets of Rupert Murdoch.

The Sun is going to be running tracker polls from now right up until the election. That’s probably going to be about 50 separate polls, presumably costing them hundreds of thousands of pounds. Fair play to them, though I guess their real agenda is having a daily stick to bash “LABOUR LOSERS!” about with. After all, only a fool would vote Labour when they are LOSERS!

So, although the subject of this post is indeed sarcastic, it is also prophetic. We are going to be truly spoiled in the weeks ahead. Though the people with the most to lose are going to be YouGov, as it will be their polling figures that dominate the news agenda. No doubt Labour will dismiss them as a biased internet polling organisation, but they did that for the London Mayoral election of 2008 as well and look where it got them.

In the weeks drawing up to an election, there may or may not be some exciting changes around here. There’ll be less of my opinionated wisdom (hooray!) and more number crunching. The hope is to capture a little of the American spirit of FiveThirtyEight.com – which was essential reading in the run up to the American election of 2008, and will be again this autumn. No regression analyses though. That’s a bit too far…

The waiting continues…

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