The Futility Monster

He'll pointlessly derive more enjoyment out of your resources than you

What’s Wrong With Angus Reid?

Posted by The Futility Monster on February 3, 2010 @ 11:02

I’m sure there are many people in this country who share a name with the UK’s newest pollster. To them, I apologise.

Angus Reid Strategies are not new to polling. They are an international firm with a very decent reputation in their main market, Canada, where they successfully predicted the last federal election there.

They chose to spread their wings by, in a British blogosphere first, teaming up with Mike Smithson of Political Betting.com to provide polling for them, presumably as a loss-leader to get noticed in the UK market.

And, my, they have been noticed. This table might explain why…

Taken on their own, it’s not particularly fascinating. The Tory share is rock solid, very close to my own estimates, and those of other pollsters. Looking good for 40%.

They also are around the expected value for the Lib Dems, maybe towards the higher end, but definitely safe within the margin of error. I get the feeling that they are more likely to be right than MORI’s recent 16% estimate for the party.

But it is the Labour figure that is starting to worry me, and even Mike Smithson himself has written a very strong defence of their methodology. But maybe they’ve taken his words of wisdom regarding Labour exaggeration to such an extreme that they’re reducing it too much?

Angus Reid are now some way out of line with the other pollsters for Labour. Take a look on the right to see for yourself…

It’s not enormous, and to their credit they have been consistent. Even when they launched they were showing the lowest Labour share of all the pollsters. To this day they continue, only now they are sticking out even more because of the great deal of recent polls showing Labour nudging up ever so slightly, perhaps above 30%.

But I just can’t believe that we are experiencing 1992 again, with five, six, seven percent Labour exaggeration. They surely won’t be that wrong again?

Either way, it is Angus Reid to “blame” for my current Monster’s Poll rating showing Labour on just 22%. Their consistent low Labour shares will, presumably, continue and result in my own methodology showing a very poor Labour performance.

22%, even 24%, would be utter humiliation for them. I don’t think Labour voters will sit on their hands in such large numbers to achieve that, and they certainly haven’t all suddenly become Tory voters. Some have, most of them in the marginal seats where it really matters. But not to this extent, surely?

Either way, it’s going to be fascinating. And with such a wide amount of disparity, I don’t have the guts to risk any money on the outcome…

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One Response to “What’s Wrong With Angus Reid?”

  1. […] still seems quite low for my liking, but this is because of our old friend Angus Reid, who are really putting their necks on the block with their data sitting way out of kilter with the […]

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