The Futility Monster

He'll pointlessly derive more enjoyment out of your resources than you

All Eyes On Massachusetts

Posted by The Futility Monster on January 19, 2010 @ 22:59

No time to blog properly today after a surprising deluge of work, of the piss-taking variety, but my political antennae are currently firmly tuned to the special election for Ted Kennedy’s old seat in the Senate.

If a Republican manages to win, in one of the bluest states in the Union, it will spell curtains for Obama’s midterm efforts in November. It will mean that it is already too late for the Democrats to convince the coalition that brought him to his epic victory in November 2008 to come out for him again.

But it is too early to write the obituaries. Maybe the Democrats will manage it after all. Maybe they’ll even get a stonking win and we’ll wonder what all the fuss was about.

Even if they do though, this is a sign of how difficult the fight is going to be this year. The Republicans are strongly motivated. Democrats are beleaguered after a year of internal warfare and ceaseless pandering to the right and the special interests, after being elected on a promise to deliver major reform to the country.

Some might counter that a Democrat loss may be the kick up the backside they need.

Possibly. It’s hard to be sure. But I wouldn’t bank on it.

In any case, Obama is not a man to take risks.

My disappointment rating moves up just another notch…

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2 Responses to “All Eyes On Massachusetts”

  1. There’s an interesting analysis here of the effect of a poor candidate on the Democrat loss:

    http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/01/lets-play-blame-game.html

    Basically, if they’d had a decent candidate, they would have won – so all is not necessarily doom and gloom for the Democrats in respect of the mid-terms.

  2. I enjoy Nate’s analysis on FiveThirtyEight.com… but sometimes I find his ability to reduce everything to a number rather frightening!

    I hope so, but even with a better candidate I still think they’d be way down on the Obama numbers for Mass. in 2008.

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